Southeast Asia and Vietnam in the Shadow of U.S.-China Rivalry | Le Hong Hiep

Show notes

🎙️ Dr. Le Hong Hiep, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Vietnam Studies Program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and editor of the journal Contemporary Southeast Asia, joined Eleonora Neri, International Relations Specialist at the Vienna Institute for Global Studies (VIGS), for a compelling conversation about how Southeast Asia is navigating the intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China. Together they explore the regional dilemma of balancing between two great powers, the transformation of supply chains and tech competition, and Vietnam's delicate positioning in an era where neutrality is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

From the South China Sea to semiconductor supply chains, from tariff wars to AI infrastructure, Southeast Asia finds itself at the epicenter of US-China competition. Dr. Le Hong Hiep explains how the region "feels the heat" more acutely than anywhere else—caught between geographic proximity to China and deep economic ties to the United States. He examines how countries like the Philippines are leaning toward Washington, while Laos and Cambodia align more closely with Beijing, and how middle powers like Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia are attempting to hedge by maintaining good relations with both sides. Yet the space for this balancing act is shrinking, and the "don't make us choose" mantra may be losing its viability as both powers increasingly demand alignment.

The conversation turns to the economic dimension of this rivalry, particularly the reconfiguration of global supply chains. Dr. Le Hong Hiep reveals how Vietnam has emerged as a major beneficiary of the "China Plus One" strategy, attracting significant foreign investment from multinational companies diversifying away from China. Yet this opportunity comes with risk: US tariffs targeting transshipment, pressure to decouple from Chinese suppliers, and the challenge of avoiding overdependence on foreign capital. He discusses the infrastructure bottlenecks, energy constraints, and policy choices that will determine whether Vietnam can leverage this moment to upgrade its economy or become trapped between competing demands from Washington and Beijing.

AI and technology emerge as the new frontier in US-China competition. Dr. Le Hong Hiep describes how both powers are competing for influence over Southeast Asia's digital infrastructure—from NVIDIA versus Huawei chips to OpenAI versus DeepSeek models—and how regional governments are attempting to build technological autonomy to avoid becoming dependent on either side. He also reflects on the risks of technological bifurcation, where countries may be forced to adopt duplicate systems to satisfy both powers, straining resources and undermining efficiency. From Vietnam's four "no's" foreign policy to ASEAN's efforts to maintain centrality, this episode offers a grounded, forward-looking analysis of a region learning to live with uncertainty, adapt to disruption, and preserve strategic autonomy in a world increasingly defined by great power rivalry.

🎧 The Next25 Podcast brings together leading experts to discuss the global challenges and ideas shaping the next 25 years.